Welcome to ekonomija.org!
We are a economic portal with an aim to provide objective views, comments and analysis of the Serbian economy. There is a significant lack of economic commentary available to a wider public in Serbia and our mission is to partially address this issue. All of us are fluent speakers of English and hence have the capability to translate the content of our website into English. However, as ekonomija.org is essentially a voluntary project, at the moment we are restricted by the lack of free time. However, in the due course we will attempt to translate certain articles. Until then we are happy to respond to inquiries and questions sent to urednistvo@ekonomija.org.
You can also take a look at the abstract of each analysis we published. If you are interested in full versions, you can also contact us at urednistvo@ekonomija.org.
- Financial Analysis of Serbian Corporations’
Author: Dragovan Milićević
Key words: Serbia, corporations, privatization.
Abstract: Based on detailed survey of 1506 corporations, we find that corporations’ business performance has declined in 2008. Failed privatization contributes to this trend. This is documented by at least one third of contracts being revised and growing trend of buying corporations for their real estate instead of business potential.
- Monetary Cooperation in Southeast Europe: Common Currency, Fixed Exchange Rate, or Status Quo?
Authors: Nikola Tasić i Vladimir Vučković
Key words: Southeast Europe, monetary integration, exchange rate regime, common currency.
Abstract: This article analyzes potentials for monetary cooperation/integration in Southeast Europe. We apply structural VAR model in order to recover supply and demand shocks and to determine the degree of business cycles synchronization. Our results are in line with previous research on the region: economic cycles are weekly correlated, which indicates relatively high costs of monetary integration of observed countries and of abandoning exchange rate policy. This paper is the first one to apply noted methodology to Serbian data.
- The Effect of Agglomerations on the Foreign Direct Investments Inflows
Author: Miroslav Zdravković
Key words: Agglomerations, foreign direct investment, multinational corporations.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the flows of foreign direct investments and their contribution to changes in spatial concentration of economic activity. The theoretical and empirical literature suggests that foreign direct investment has much stronger spatial concentration than the overall economic activity, thus strengthening the current spatial patterns or creating new ones.
- The Maturity Structure of Cross-Border Lending to the Transition Countries
Authors: Nikola Tasić i Vladimir Vučković
Key words: Cross-border lending, debt maturity, BIS, transition countries.
Abstract: Economic growth is positively correlated with share of long-term debt in total cross-border capital inflow. In this paper we analyze changes in cross-border debt maturity in transition countries from 2006. to 2009. Share of short-term capital for majority of countries is decreasing, which can be contributed to the enhancement of institutional and economic performance. Global financial crisis emphasizes the importance of cross-border debt maturity.
- Monetary Policy and the Recovery of Serbian Economy
Authors: Miroslav Zdravković and Nikola Tasić
Key words: Exchange rate, banking system, monetary policy.
Abstract: This analysis draws attention to Serbian banking industry, looking at the activity of banks, nonfinancial enterprises, public sector, and households. The discussion is motivated by the short-term capital flows, as one of the key determinants of the exchange rate of dinar. The analysis suggests that economic recovery, sustainable in the long-run, is achievable only if it involves in-depth reform of the monetary strategy.
Remarks: The views expressed in this analysis do not reflect the official views of institutions where authors are employed.
- Dinar exchange rate and inflation
Author: Nikola Tasić
Key words: Pass-through effect, exchange rate, inflation, depreciation.
Abstract: This paper estimates the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices in Serbia. Results obtained using ADL methodology suggest that the effect of exchange rate to inflation is Serbia is relatively high, but incomplete and well below one. The estimate of the pass-through effect is 0.18 in the short-run and 0.49 in the long-run. During the depreciation of the domestic currency the effect is 0.23 in the short-run and 0.64 in the long-run.
Remarks: Previous version of this analysis is published in NBS Working Paper series.
- Consumption Dynamics in Serbia
Authors: Milan Aleksić and Nikola Tasić
Key words: Poverty, consumption, Serbia.
Abstract: This research builds on the previous studies of poverty in Serbia and examines effects of additional household characteristics on poverty. We also investigate effects of infrastructure and local community development on poverty and improve econometric techniques used in the previous studies. We confirm previous findings and provide several additional results. While income and durable goods remain determinants of consumption, our results also suggest that other household characteristics should be also considered. Local infrastructure is also important determinant, with more developed communities having greater consumption and lower poverty instances. We also show that government policies have the direct and the indirect effect on consumption and poverty.
Remarks: Authors would like to thank Sonja Avlijaš and Tatjana Karaulac for their helpful comments and suggestions. This research was financially supported by the Office of Deputy Prime Minister's for Poverty Reduction Strategy Implementation.
- Revision of the State Budget of the Republic of Serbia for 2009.
Authors: Miroslav Zdravković and Ivan Nikolić
Key words: Budget, revision, Serbia.
Abstract: State budget of the Republic of Serbia was drafted in cooperation with IMF in the mid-November 2008, in accordance with the coalition agreement (pension increase of 10%) and the state of the world economy of the period. Ever since the budget was drafted, conditions worsened around the world, affecting Serbia as well. This paper recommends revised budget that would be socially just, economically sustainable, and at the same time it contains shock-absorbing elements that are necessary response to worldwide depression. Deepening of the crisis in the following months can make recommended policies and estimates optimistic, while the revisions to our estimates of exchange rate, prices and budget revenue and expenditures can only tilt toward pessimistic side.
- Long-run Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Serbian Exports and Imports
Authors: Nikola Tasić and Miroslav Zdravković
Key words: Exchange rate, imports, exports, pensions and wages.
Abstract: Motivated by the theory that suggests that Serbian exporters bear a burden of “strong” dinar, this paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The contribution of this paper is the estimate of the long-run impact of exchange rate on exports and imports for several industry groups. The estimated elasticity of exports with respect to real exchange rate is about 0.5, suggesting that the potential changes in the exchange rate policy would yield relatively small benefits for exporters. On the other hand, long-run relationship of imports and the exchange rate is not confirmed, while the aggregate wages, salaries, and pensions have the strongest effect on imports in the long run.
Remarks: Previous versions of this analysis are publihsed in NBS Working Paper series and in Monthly Analyses and Trends.
